Peter Pays Paul

Diana Olick outlines some of the issues that are causing jitters in the commercial real estate world.

“As the market is now deteriorating, as vacancy rates are rising and as asking rents are moderating and in some places declining, gaps in cash flows, how much money is the property producing versus what the debt service payments are, that gap is widening in many cases and it’s making it really challenging to meet the debt service coverage payments.”

Fear Gripping Commercial Real Estate—But Question Is Why?.

Imagine that little retail center near your house.You know the one.

It has your favorite coffee shop, the weird home decor shop, a woman’s clothing boutique, the nail shop, and the national auto parts store.

Over the years you’ve seen the stores change. Different shop owners have come and gone. The coffee shop has been there for a while. The woman’s clothing store is only a year old.

As you drive by you notice a “Going Out of Business” sale going on in the home decor shop. You’ve talked with the owner of the woman’s boutique and she is having a rough time making a profit.

If these two stores close their doors, you wonder who is going to fill this space. What is going to happen to the owner of that little retail center? Where will he find tenants?

The Plight of Retail Stores

Americans are spending less money these days. We built our economy upon the model of consumption and borrowed to fuel that consumption.

With the well of cheap financing depleted, spending has come to a screeching halt. Retailers nationwide are taking a hit. The recent headlines have featured the likes of Circuit City, Mervyn’s, Shoe Pavilion, and Linens ‘n Things.

The Pain on Retail Center Owners

When a retail store closes or “goes dark” the landlord will feel the pain of having a vacant store. (Some leases do have a provision that stores can close but while the tenant continues to pay rent.) This means that she does not have as much rental income to pay the bills she faces for owning the property.

How Vacancy and Rental Rates Affect Value

I shared here the most common method to value income producing property. The most important numbers to determine value are Net Operating Income (NOI) and the Capitalization (Cap) Rate.

Rental rates and the assumed vacancy rate will affect the NOI. NOI is then used to calculate the value of the property based on an expected return to the investor, the Cap Rate.

Slight Changes with Devastating Effects

So how would a 10% decrease in rents, a 5% increase in vacancy, and a 1% increase in Cap Rate affect a properties value?

Notice that the value decreases by 26%.

Also notice that the change in the maximum loan amount decreases by $1.08 million. If the borrower needs to refinance under these new assumptions, the borrower will need to come up with over a $1 million to close the loan. The foreclosure process and bankruptcy are not far away.

The Current Credit Crisis

Currently, some institutional lenders have begun to underwrite retail loans along the lines of this scenario. They are forecasting decreasing rents and higher vacancy rates.

Some lenders are incorporating a higher cap rate as well. (One developer I know said that he hasn’t started a retail project unless it underwrote at a 8% cap rate or higher because of historical cap rates, even during the boom times.)

Unless, a retail property absolutely must be refinanced now, the wise real estate investor would be best served to hold off until cooler heads prevail.

No, I’m not writing about NASCAR or the IndyCar Series. And no it is not the video game.

I’m talking about those rare occasions where you need money and you need it fast.

If you are a commercial real estate sales agent or commercial loan broker, what do you do? Do you know who to turn to in a pinch?

In baseball many teams have the left-handed specialist who will come into the game to get one batter out.

Basketball teams have their specialists as well. The Chicago Bulls had Michael Jordan. The Lakers, Kobe Bryant. Who is your “Go-To-Guy” when time is short and you need a “sure thing”?

“Clutch”

Coaches depend on “clutch” players that will perform when the game is on the line.

Do you have a lender you can depend on when there are 10 seconds left and you are down by two? Do you have a “clutch” lender that understands real estate and can salvage a deal when your client’s deposit is on the line and close of escrow is days away?

Built for Speed

Most hard money lenders are built for speed. Some models of business are faster than others, but in general this is one of the advantages of hard money.

Because most private money lenders don’t have FDIC and state banking guidelines to follow they can underwrite and make a decision much faster than a bank. This allows them to fund deals much faster than a bank.

Always Be Prepared

No one plans on a deal going sour at the last minute, but it is good to have a plan for a “what if” scenario.

Like the Boy Scouts’ motto Be Prepared, commercial real estate specialists should have a tool for every situation. Having a relationship with a hard money lender for deals that require them is just another tool in the commercial real estate professional’s belt.

The Essence of a Professional

Which do you think sounds more reassuring to a client and more professional?

“I never have seen this situation happen before. I’m not sure what to tell you Mr. Borrower. I will have to get back to you on our options.”

Or

“Mrs. Borrower this situation rarely happens. However, I have developed a relationship with a lender that specializes in closing loans quickly. They are a more expensive than bank financing, but they will allow us time to find a more permanent solution.”

Quick Close Scenarios

Mr. O’Skool Mr. O'Skool is an experienced real estate investor. He is very "old school" and doesn't like much leverage. He speaks slowly and always has interesting anecdotes about life. He drives a late model station wagon and brags that he has a second matching station wagon at home in the garage. You are not sure you have seen him without a sweater on.

Mr. O'Skool owns a variety of properties He owns two apartment buildings free and clear. Through his network he learns that another apartment house is available for purchase. He knows that he can purchase it from the current owner if he closes in 15 days time at a 15% capitalization rate, otherwise the owner is going to list it on the market.

Can you get Mr. O'Skool the money he needs to purchase the property in 15 days?

Ms. Forshewnat

Ms. Forshewnat is a very successful real estate investor. She began with a few properties her late husband left to her and has parlayed that into a multi-million dollar real estate empire.

Through the grapevine you have heard that she is not extremely pleased with the service she has received from her previous lender. You have been courting her business for a while and she has finally agreed to allow you a chance at winning her business. She tells you that she is has other notes coming due in the coming months.

She has asked you to finance an office building she owns as the note is coming due in 120 days. You take Ms. Forshewnat to one of your lenders that has a great program for office buildings.

Everything is moving along without a hitch until the lender runs a new credit report 20 days before closing. It seems that Ms. Forshewnat co-signed a loan with her 23-year old son who has missed two of his payments. Now her credit score has dropped and the lender is unable to extend financing.

Can you find a lender to close in 20 days in order to keep Ms. Forshewnat from having a default and jeopardizing future loans?

Buying Time

In general, hard money is not a long-term solution. But it can buy you time to find that permanent solution.

Having a reliable, direct hard money lender can be invaluable to commercial real estate professionals.

When governments intervene into private contracts it has long-term unintended consequences, and usually they are negative.

Read a blurb regarding the research from the St. Louis Fed on the downside of a moratorium on foreclosures.

Governments cause both immediate and long-term effects when they rewrite the terms of contracts between private parties, Wheelock argueded. “Although the economic and societal benefits of lower foreclosure rates are difficult to measure,” he said, “research shows that the foreclosure moratoria of the Great Depression imposed costs on future borrowers.”

Future borrowers were faced, according to the analysis and cited studies, with a restricted supply of loans and sky-high interest rates, because lenders needed to compensate for the possibility that their right to foreclose on delinquent loans would be constrained. Under the nation’s current turmoil, policymakers are scrambling to enact similar regulations as were made during the great depression, in order to limit the highest foreclosure rates since (what else?) the Great Depression.

Here is the link to the HousingWire.com article.
History Warns Against Foreclosure Moratoria: Study : HousingWire.

Here is a link to the St. Louis Fed report.

Update (HT: Tom Vanderwell)

The Wall Street Journal is reporting on the plight of Vallejo, CA today. The Journal reports that Vallejo is already down 20% of its police force since January and could loose another 20% of its force by the years end.

California Cities Cut Police Budgets – WSJ.com.

This is just one of the effects that cities are experiencing due to lost revenue from development fees and property tax revenues. City councils bought into the myth that real estate would continue to go up in value indefinitely and city services would be adequately funded.

An underfunded police force will likely affect real estate values in Vallejo and other municipalities like Vallejo. If crime rises and the perception of safety decreases, real estate values in some areas of Vallejo will likely decrease as neighborhoods become less desirable.

This could be an unending downward spiral for cities as property taxes are assessed on transfer value in California due to Proposition 13. Lower real estate values would generate lower property tax revenue and the city would have to cut more costs from their budget.

This is a key reminder to real estate investors that local government issues can affect long-term real estate values.

Deals in cities with bankrupt or poorly funded city coffers should be given a higher degree of scrutiny and underwriting.

A Vortex for Trouble:How the Central Coast became the center of a specialized type of lender fraud.

Through the use of a clever experiment with a skating rink, John Stossel argues the faults of central planning.

The University of Southern California organized a panel of speakers on the current financial and real estate market. (Ht: Richard Green)

Finance & Real Estate Market Meltdown

Real estate investors that are seeking to grow their invested capital commonly use 1031 Tax-Deferred Exchanges.

These exchanges allow the borrower to apply more of the proceeds from the sale of an existing investment property to the purchase of a new investment property.

1031 Exchanges Defined

This is an explanation of an 1031 exchange according to the IRS website:

Generally, if you exchange business or investment property solely for business or investment property of a like-kind, no gain or loss is recognized under Internal Revenue Code Section 1031.

My explanation in a nutshell: a real estate investor can sell a piece of investment property, defer the capital gains tax until a later date, and roll the entire gain into the purchase of a new piece of investment real estate. The taxes are deferred (postponed) until the investment property is sold the final time.

Benefits of 1031 Exchanges

Deferring the taxes due on capital gains (appreciation) can reap huge rewards over time. Deferring payment of capital gain tax allows the savvy investor to apply more capital towards the purchase.

Leverage should allow the investor to generate a higher return through appreciation and/or cash flow.

1031 Exchange Hurdles

Now of course the government doesn’t make it an easy process and sets limits and restrictions on how a 1031 Exchange must be executed.

One of the main restrictions is the timing on completion of a 1031 Exchange. The exchange must be completed within 180 days of the transfer of the exchanged property. This deadline can put pressure on all involved to complete the deal within the 180 day period.

The costs of missing this deadline can be large. The borrower will be forced to pay capital gains tax on any gain as well as any penalties that might be incurred if the contract date is not met.

Most exchangers will typically qualify for standard financing. However, on occasion an institutional lender will be unable to provide financing within the mandated 180 days.

Using a Hard Money Loan to Execute a 1031 Exchange

If the primary lender is unable to close on time, what is the investor to do?

One of the benefits of using hard money is the speed that hard money lenders provide. A hard money lender that lends their own funds and is well operated can provide commercial financing within 14 days of receiving a complete package.

Another benefit is that most lenders offer loans on a short term basis. The hard money loan can help an investor close the transaction while a more permanent loan is arranged.

While the fees associated with hard money may be higher than a traditional source, the benefits of completing the transaction within the mandated time may outweigh the costs.

1031 Example

The following example should help demonstrate my point. Below are the assumptions we will use for our example.

Below are the costs that would be associated with a failure to execute the contract on time. I have only included what I would cite as the most basic and immediate costs. (There would be the potential loss of future returns as a result of cash flow and/or appreciation.)

The current capital gains rate is 15% but is set to increase in 2010. By including the deposit I am assuming that the deposit became non-refundable at some point.

Below I have computed the after tax costs of a hard money loan. The pricing below is on the high side for a short-term, conservative LTV loan.

Conclusion

As you can see from the example the after-tax cost of hard money may be less than the cost of not executing the 1031 exchange on time.

Hard money is not the best option for all scenarios. When a deal is on the line and speed is needed, hard money is a good alternative to institutional financing.

For more information head on over to Jeff Brown’s blog to find out more about 1031 exchanges and when to execute them.

I returned Saturday from a trip to Central Asia. The trip was not work related, but I wouldn’t call it a vacation either. It was very pleasureful and rewarding, but it involved a lot of effort.

One of the interesting notes that I came back with is that the country I visited experienced a real estate bubble and liquidity crisis along with the U.S. market.

Real Estate Bubble

According to my contact in country, this is the story. Banks in the West and the U.S. would lend money to banks in the East. In turn these Eastern Banks would lend to the locals to purchase real estate, start a business, or buy a car.

As the cost of money (interest) grew less expensive, more individuals and companies were able to receive loans from Eastern Banks. As the number of qualified buyers grew so did real estate prices. They dramatically increased, almost doubling in a few years.

When the Western Banks suffered a liquidity crisis, the faucet was turned off for the Eastern Banks. The supply of money was gone. Fewer buyers could afford to purchase real estate causing the rising values to fall.

Speculation is not isolated to the United States. Prices have fallen in the past year. My contact in country told me that his organization had benefited from the sale of one asset during the peak of the market. After the bubble burst, they were able to buy a more affordable piece of property and begin the construction of a new facility to meet their needs.

The Cost of Money

Another new friend worked for one of the Eastern Banks. She was in charge of arranging loans from Western Banks to her Eastern Bank. The last transaction she arranged was $500 Million.

If you think interest rates are bad here, be glad you do not live there.

My friend told me that her Eastern Bank borrowed money in the 8-10% range from Western Banks. I assumed that the bank’s margin would be 1-3% to Eastern Borrowers. Her answer was “No, more like 6% to 9%. That is not including the fees. They have fees for everything.”

On the low end the Eastern Banks were going to charge 14% and up to almost 20% before fees. All this in a country where the per capita GDP is about $11,000.

Oh, so many things to be thankful for.