Peter Pays Paul

When governments intervene into private contracts it has long-term unintended consequences, and usually they are negative.

Read a blurb regarding the research from the St. Louis Fed on the downside of a moratorium on foreclosures.

Governments cause both immediate and long-term effects when they rewrite the terms of contracts between private parties, Wheelock argueded. “Although the economic and societal benefits of lower foreclosure rates are difficult to measure,” he said, “research shows that the foreclosure moratoria of the Great Depression imposed costs on future borrowers.”

Future borrowers were faced, according to the analysis and cited studies, with a restricted supply of loans and sky-high interest rates, because lenders needed to compensate for the possibility that their right to foreclose on delinquent loans would be constrained. Under the nation’s current turmoil, policymakers are scrambling to enact similar regulations as were made during the great depression, in order to limit the highest foreclosure rates since (what else?) the Great Depression.

Here is the link to the HousingWire.com article.
History Warns Against Foreclosure Moratoria: Study : HousingWire.

Here is a link to the St. Louis Fed report.

Update (HT: Tom Vanderwell)

Paul Kedrosky has an interesting graph from John Mauldin up in the link below that highlights the difference in the GDP if you were to subtract mortgage equity withdrawals.

Paul Kedrosky: Funny Money: U.S. GDP Growth Net of Mortgage Withdrawals.

What does this mean?

Much of the growth in the US economy from 2001 t0 2006 was fueled by money borrowed from our houses.

Now that home equity has disappeared for many homeowners, discretionary spending will decrease.

Companies that depend discretionary spending (retailers) will feel the pinch by the loss of this discretionary spending money.

(HT:Tom Vanderwell

The Wall Street Journal is reporting on the plight of Vallejo, CA today. The Journal reports that Vallejo is already down 20% of its police force since January and could loose another 20% of its force by the years end.

California Cities Cut Police Budgets – WSJ.com.

This is just one of the effects that cities are experiencing due to lost revenue from development fees and property tax revenues. City councils bought into the myth that real estate would continue to go up in value indefinitely and city services would be adequately funded.

An underfunded police force will likely affect real estate values in Vallejo and other municipalities like Vallejo. If crime rises and the perception of safety decreases, real estate values in some areas of Vallejo will likely decrease as neighborhoods become less desirable.

This could be an unending downward spiral for cities as property taxes are assessed on transfer value in California due to Proposition 13. Lower real estate values would generate lower property tax revenue and the city would have to cut more costs from their budget.

This is a key reminder to real estate investors that local government issues can affect long-term real estate values.

Deals in cities with bankrupt or poorly funded city coffers should be given a higher degree of scrutiny and underwriting.

A New York real estate lawyer was shot in the parking lot of a Korean restaurant on Monday.

His friend said, “DiMartino recently began a side business in real-estate closings, title searches and ‘hard-moneylending’ – high-interest loans to people unable to tap traditional credit sources.”

Are real estate investors that desperate to get out of debt that they would commit murder?

I tend to check Yahoo! Finance frequently. It was very useful when I was working in wealth management. Laura Rowley a commentator on Yahoo! Finance lays out an interview with a Wall Street broker.

The broker’s outlook is not very bright. It gives a big of insight into why the market fell the way that it did.

But stepping back, the critical error was that everyone [thought] there would not be a substantial, nationwide decrease in real estate prices. The whole subprime debacle was predicated on the fact that people said, “Well, this borrower is not really credit worthy and can’t afford the house, but in four years it will be up 20 percent or more.”

It was widely believed that if you had bad mortgages from different geographic areas that all those [real estate markets] weren’t going to go down together….

Check it out here.

Through the use of a clever experiment with a skating rink, John Stossel argues the faults of central planning.

We are living in rare days. The financial turmoil is on the headline news every night. The U.S. government has decided that it is the savior of the markets. Congress fought over “The Bailout”. The market can’t decide which way it wants to go.

The news is very gloomy.

Weathering the Storm

Much if not the majority of the news it outside of our individual control. The “winds of destruction” are swirling around our heads.

We can’t stop the winds from blowing. But we can keep our heads down.

You can do nothing anything about macroeconomic problems. You can’t buy enough plasma televisions to save the economy. You don’t control the price of the stock market. You can’t force banks to begin lending.

If you focus on the global economy, the number of unemployed, or the weather forecast for January, you are distracted from the items that you can do today to improve your bottom line.

Focus on Things You Can Control

Focus your energy and emotions on daily items within your sphere of control to ensure that you survive these times. Wasting time and emotions on things outside of your control is ultimately unprofitable.

Focus on Your Attitude

Stay positive. Do not be preoccupied with all that you don’t have. Thinking about toys/gadgets/money we don’t have leads to grumpiness. No one likes a grumpy person.

Rather than focus on what you are lacking, focus on what you do have. Be thankful for things like family, friends, a job, a home, and food. Remember there are always people less fortunate than us.

Focus on Being Productive

What activities can you do daily that will impact sales? Is it phone calls, emails, or personal visits? Focus on completing these tasks. Focus on meeting people, generating referrals, and results.

When will you do these activities on a daily basis? Plan the activities that are profitable into your calendar. Block time in order to attain the results necessary. Turn off the phone. Don’t check your email. Stay on point and accomplish your goals. (Even as I write this I am being distracted by something.)

How many [blank] do you have to do to generate the income that you want? If you reach 5 people a day will it generate the income you want? Do you need to phone 10 people a day? If you email 200 people a month will it generate the results you need?

Focus on Adding Value

If you constantly seek to add value as an employee, as a salesman, or as a consultant you will be rewarded for the value you add.

Too often we are myopic and only think that the item we sell adds value. However, we can add value by relaying good information, referring a new customer, or by offering insight. All of these can be done at no cost to our clients, yet it endears them to us. Caution: Don’t expect to get something in return immediately.

What value are bringing to your boss/client? You are only worth the value you add!

Get Back to Work!

It is easy to see that in these coming times, work will win the day. Those that work harder and perform at a higher level will be rewarded.

The “Times of Plenty” are over. Now by the sweat of our brow we will have to generate income.

Don’t let the negativity distract you from production, staying positive, and adding value.

The University of Southern California organized a panel of speakers on the current financial and real estate market. (Ht: Richard Green)

Finance & Real Estate Market Meltdown

CBS’s 60 Minutes investigated the CDS market that Wall Street created.

This parody of the current economic times is quite entertaining!