Peter Pays Paul

San Francisco Magazine has an updated article on the fall of the Lembi real estate empire in San Francisco. The collapse may take down a local bank that lent the Lembi controlled CitiApartments in excess of $40 million.

The Lembi real-estate implosion (see “War of Values,” December 2009) is on the verge of claiming another casualty: little Tamalpais Bank of San Rafael,

…

Tamalpais Bank made most of the Lembi loans between December 2007 and April 2008. In spring 2008, the bank’s parent company announced record earnings and assets, propelled in part by expansion of its commercial real-estate portfolio.

(HT: Square Feet)

Office Depot Shuttering 126 Stores, 6 Distribution Centers, and Cutting 2009 Store Opening Plans – CoStar Group

Office Depot is shuttering 122 stores. This is more bad news for retail property owners.

Mortgage Troubles Are Moving Downtown

The NY Times is reporting on the likely increase in defaults of CMBS loans.

Many of these loans were made in a competitive lending market. Underwriters made aggressive forecasts for property income and expenses in order to justify higher loan amounts.

If the buildings miss these targets or lose tenants it may be difficult for them to make the monthly payments on this CMBS debt.

Distress Reliever

The New York Observer has an interview with the head of CB Richard Ellis’ distressed asset team, Spencer Levy. CB Richard Ellis is among the many players that have formed distressed asset teams or funds to take advantage of the incredible buying opportunity in the coming years.

Is this part of an insidious plan to force the Middle East to kowtow to the U.S. by having them throw money after companies swirling around the drain?

Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal plans to support Citigroup by upping his stake in the bank, but news of the modest increase may not be enough to revive weary investors' confidence.

Royal Treatment Can’t Save Citi – Forbes.com.

Paul Kedrosky has an interesting graph from John Mauldin up in the link below that highlights the difference in the GDP if you were to subtract mortgage equity withdrawals.

Paul Kedrosky: Funny Money: U.S. GDP Growth Net of Mortgage Withdrawals.

What does this mean?

Much of the growth in the US economy from 2001 t0 2006 was fueled by money borrowed from our houses.

Now that home equity has disappeared for many homeowners, discretionary spending will decrease.

Companies that depend discretionary spending (retailers) will feel the pinch by the loss of this discretionary spending money.

(HT:Tom Vanderwell

The Golden State is going to be in for a rough year. The Associated Press is reporting that the state may deliver just 15 percent of the requested amount to California cities and farms.

Calif. to cut water deliveries to cities, farms – Yahoo! News.

Fewer crops may be planted if there is no water for the crops. In economic terms this could mean higher prices for some of the every day food stuffs that Californians enjoy.

Californians had better pray for rain.

Warren Buffett thinks that investing in U.S. equities for the long run is a great investment. He has written an op-ed piece for the NY Times.

Buffett says:

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Read it hear: Op-Ed Contributor – Buy American. I Am. – NYTimes.com (HT:Real Clear Politics)

National Real Estate Investor Online had an article on the number of “Opportunity Funds” that have formed to take advantage of distressed real estate. As of the article 35 funds raised a total of $33.5 billion.

Real Estate Opportunity Funds Overfloweth

The “bailout” or “rescue” is the hot topic on most lips these days. In fact it is hard to escape on any of the media outlets.

Below are a few articles for you to ponder on this issue.

Is Purchasing $700 billion of Toxic Assets the Best Way to Recapitalize the Financial System?

Nouriel Roubini argues against the proposed plan. He summarizes, “Thus, the Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer.”

You Can’t Rescue the Financial System If You Can’t Read a Balance Sheet

John Hussman details the reasons that the current plan only provides a benefit if the Treasury pays above market value for the value of the securities, a very reassuring thought (sic). (HT:Naked Capitalism)

Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer

Jeffrey Miron from Harvard argues that the government should do nothing and let the companies that invested in the bad investments go bankrupt. He states, “Bankruptcy punishes those who took excessive risks while preserving those aspects of a businesses that remain profitable.” He argues that bad government policy should not be fixed with more government. He also reasons that credit markets are frozen is likely caused by the current owners of bad securities being unwilling to sell them at the offered price, because they are waiting for Uncle Sam to come in and pay a higher price.

Real estate investors that are seeking to grow their invested capital commonly use 1031 Tax-Deferred Exchanges.

These exchanges allow the borrower to apply more of the proceeds from the sale of an existing investment property to the purchase of a new investment property.

1031 Exchanges Defined

This is an explanation of an 1031 exchange according to the IRS website:

Generally, if you exchange business or investment property solely for business or investment property of a like-kind, no gain or loss is recognized under Internal Revenue Code Section 1031.

My explanation in a nutshell: a real estate investor can sell a piece of investment property, defer the capital gains tax until a later date, and roll the entire gain into the purchase of a new piece of investment real estate. The taxes are deferred (postponed) until the investment property is sold the final time.

Benefits of 1031 Exchanges

Deferring the taxes due on capital gains (appreciation) can reap huge rewards over time. Deferring payment of capital gain tax allows the savvy investor to apply more capital towards the purchase.

Leverage should allow the investor to generate a higher return through appreciation and/or cash flow.

1031 Exchange Hurdles

Now of course the government doesn’t make it an easy process and sets limits and restrictions on how a 1031 Exchange must be executed.

One of the main restrictions is the timing on completion of a 1031 Exchange. The exchange must be completed within 180 days of the transfer of the exchanged property. This deadline can put pressure on all involved to complete the deal within the 180 day period.

The costs of missing this deadline can be large. The borrower will be forced to pay capital gains tax on any gain as well as any penalties that might be incurred if the contract date is not met.

Most exchangers will typically qualify for standard financing. However, on occasion an institutional lender will be unable to provide financing within the mandated 180 days.

Using a Hard Money Loan to Execute a 1031 Exchange

If the primary lender is unable to close on time, what is the investor to do?

One of the benefits of using hard money is the speed that hard money lenders provide. A hard money lender that lends their own funds and is well operated can provide commercial financing within 14 days of receiving a complete package.

Another benefit is that most lenders offer loans on a short term basis. The hard money loan can help an investor close the transaction while a more permanent loan is arranged.

While the fees associated with hard money may be higher than a traditional source, the benefits of completing the transaction within the mandated time may outweigh the costs.

1031 Example

The following example should help demonstrate my point. Below are the assumptions we will use for our example.

Below are the costs that would be associated with a failure to execute the contract on time. I have only included what I would cite as the most basic and immediate costs. (There would be the potential loss of future returns as a result of cash flow and/or appreciation.)

The current capital gains rate is 15% but is set to increase in 2010. By including the deposit I am assuming that the deposit became non-refundable at some point.

Below I have computed the after tax costs of a hard money loan. The pricing below is on the high side for a short-term, conservative LTV loan.

Conclusion

As you can see from the example the after-tax cost of hard money may be less than the cost of not executing the 1031 exchange on time.

Hard money is not the best option for all scenarios. When a deal is on the line and speed is needed, hard money is a good alternative to institutional financing.

For more information head on over to Jeff Brown’s blog to find out more about 1031 exchanges and when to execute them.

The LA Times is reporting that a Record number of California homeowners default on mortgages in 2nd quarter.

Year over year the actual number of homes being foreclosed on has increased 261%. The percent increase is dramatic. However the total number is only 63,061.

Based upon the U.S. Census Bureau Data California had 13,174,378 household units and 56.9% of those are owner-occupied. If these statistics are correct, there are 7,496,221 owner-occupied homes.

Though the increase is dramatic, the total number is still a small percentage of the total owner-occupied homes. This means that at most 0.84% of the owner-occupied homes are being foreclosed upon, or 8.4 out of 1,000.

However, my statistics do not breakout condos or home that were owned by speculators or investors. Many investors will stop making payments on their investment before they will stop making payments on their own home.

Likely, a lower percentage of owner-occupied homes are being foreclosed upon. A larger number are likely investor and speculator homes that were bought during the run-up in the real estate market.

Does the small increase from last quarter to this quarter signal that the damage is coming to an end? My crystal ball is broken. We will just have to batten down the hatches and ride out the storm.