Peter Pays Paul

East Palo Alto, in the San Francisco Bay Area, is suffering due to the default of the city’s largest landlord. The WSJ details the plight in Firm Takes Heat Over East Palo Alto Crime.

A wave of robberies and burglaries is hitting East Palo Alto, threatening to reverse the city’s recent period of stabilization. One reason behind the crime surge is the financial troubles of real-estate firm Page Mill, say locals, law enforcement and other officials of the town.

Page Mill Properties LLC, which began snapping up local apartments in 2006, became the city’s biggest rental-unit landlord and attempted to transform the town by redeveloping properties into higher-end condominiums.

Earlier this week I wrote about San Francisco’s Apartment Woes caused by the default of the Lembi family.

In both of these scenarios, inexpensive CMBS debt allowed the investor to buy property at unrealistic prices. “A rising tide floats all boats.” The acquisitions made sense so long as the price of real estate was rising and cheap debt was available.

However, once real estate values began to fall, financing dried up, and vacancy began to rise these over-leveraged investments don’t make sense and don’t cash flow. Lax underwriting by the CMBS issuers and unrealistic assumptions by borrowers are damaging the cities where investments were made.

Hopefully, the commercial real estate industry will learn from our mistakes and excess before this cycle is repeated.

The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting in Commercial real estate market softens that some smaller office buildings are on the edge of foreclosure.

Owners of several small commercial buildings in San Francisco already are behind on payments, and local industry observers are laying odds on which large property could be the first to be seized by a lender.

…

“Real estate fundamentals are softening dramatically,” said Richard Parkus, research analyst at the German bank. “Over the next 12 to 18 months, we expect to see pretty significant deterioration.”

Of particular concern for San Francisco is the fact that nearly 75 percent of the Class A – premier – office buildings downtown traded hands in the past four years, according to Tove Nilsen, director of market research at Colliers International. The flurry of activity propelled sales prices to record highs and drove the ratio of rental income to cost to all-time lows.

According the article vacancy in San Francisco has risen by 32% from the 1st Quarter of 2008 to the 1st Quarter of 2009.

Marcus & Millichap predicted in their 2009 National Office Report a rise in vacancy of 400 bps to 15.1% in 2009 for San Francisco. As well, they predict that effective rents could drop as much as 10.7%.

Falling rents and rising vacancies will drive the value on a leased office property lower. Lower values make it more difficult to obtain financing.

Another factor that is hurting owners’ ability to refinance is rising cap rates. Investors are acknowleding the greater risks inherent in real estate and are expecting a greater return. This desire for a greater return is driving cap rates higher.

It may be a while before we see the end of the commercial real estate cycle. Properties that provide a strong cash flow now may still be a good buy. Don’t expect to find financing in today’s market for a property that cannot service the debt at a ratio of $1.10 of income to $1.00 of debt service. More institutional lenders are requiring even hire debt service coverage ratios of 1.3 or greater.

San Francisco Bay Area Commercial Real Estate Networking Events

As an aid to my San Francisco Bay Area readers I wanted to compile a resource of local events for commercial real estate brokers and agents, commercial mortgage brokers and bankers, and those interested in commercial real estate.

This not a comprehensive calendar but is a compilation from a variety of sources.

Organization Key

• 680 CIX – 680 Commercial Idea eXchange
• BAMA – Bay Area Mortgage Association
• BOMA – Building Owners and Managers Association
• CCIM – Certified Commercial Investment Member
• CREW – Commercial Real Estate Women
• ICSC – International Council of Shopping Centers
• IMF – Investment Marketing Forum
• IREM – Institute of Real Estate Management
• NAIOP – National Association of Industrial and Office Properties
• ULI – Urban Land Institute

EB = East Bay
SF = San Francisco
SV = Silicon Valley

NAIOP publishes a monthly trade organization calendar here: http://www.naiopsfba.org/pdf/MonthlyCalendar.pdf.