Peter Pays Paul

Where is the Market?

One of the most difficult tasks for commercial real estate professionals is determining where the market is today. Too few transactions, too much distress, unrealistic sellers, and opportunistic buyers make the demand for property and the proper pricing of property an exercise in futility.

Determining a rate of return commensurate with risk is difficult in these uncertain times.

Three news stories illustrate this point.

Retail Center in Vallejo, CA

GlobeSt.com is reporting that the First Grocery-Anchored Sale Closes, More to Come. The article details the sale of a 66,000 square feet Safeway anchored center in Vallejo, CA.

According to the article the property sold based on a 7.71% cap rate on current NOI. As well, the seller had an assumable loan at below market rates providing an attractive cash-on-cash return for the buyer.

The cash yield seems to be the bigger selling point. Dan Wald of Terranomics said that investors are requiring a 10% cash yield on investments.

While this property gives us an idea of the value, it is not a firm indicator. This center is well located at the entrance to a housing development. A superior location would induce a buyer to pay a higher price for the lower risk.

AIG Headquarters in Manhattan

CPN is reporting that the AIG Headquarters Sale Makes Splash in Quiet Manhattan Investment Market. (HT: David Stejkowski)

Youngwoo & Associates (YWA), a New York-based investment and development firm, together with Kumho Investment Bank (Kumho), entered into an agreement to acquire the AIG building, 70 Pine Street (pictured), and an adjacent office building, 72 Wall Street. The two buildings will total 1.4 million rentable square feet in the heart of Manhattan’s Financial District.

The rumored salesprice is around $100 million. This would value the property at around $100 per square foot.

While this may be the biggest acquisition in New York, the entire property is going to be vacated once AIG is wound down. This again doesn’t establish a firm enough foundation for other investors.

Office Building in Orange County, CA

The WSJ has an article explaing why Maguire Sells Office Site at 40% Off.

Maguire Properties Inc., a struggling Los Angeles-based real-estate investment trust, sold a newly developed office building in Irvine, Calif., for about $160 million, a price representing an estimated 40% discount to its construction cost.

The price of 3161 Michelson Drive, during a lean year for commercial real-estate sales, is the latest sign of the severe drop in values in the commercial real-estate market, which is threatening to become a major anchor around the economy just as it is struggling to come back to life.

This property like the AIG bulding suffers from vacancy issues. As well the seller was under pressure to reduce their debt load and needed to sell the asset.

The Bottom Line

Each of these sales while indicative of the current market demand and supply are not conclusive enough to determine a market pricing strategy.

Until owners begin to sell non-distressed assets, market pricing will be a moving target.

Mish has all the details regarding the latest ruling in the Vallejo bankruptcy case in Judge Rules Vallejo Can Void Union Contracts.

In a groundbreaking ruling as well as a rare victory for common sense and the overall good of taxpayers, Bankruptcy Judge Rules Calif. City Can Void Union Contracts.

In the first ruling of its kind, a bankruptcy judge held the city of Vallejo, Calif. has the authority to void its existing union contracts in its effort to reorganize, holding public workers do not enjoy the same protections Congress gave union workers at private companies.

If you recall, the city of Vallejo, CA filed bankruptcy over the high costs that it was having to pay for public services. I wrote more about the problems facing California’s cities here and here.

Mike Shedlock from Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis has a great article about the potential for municipalities across the nation to file Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis: Massive Surge In Municipal Bankruptcies Coming.

John Moorlach, the accountant who predicted the 1994 Orange County bankruptcy sees Up to 10 Municipal Bankruptcies in Coming Year

Even more infuriating than the policy makers inability to demonstrate fiscal responsibility is their willing to stick both of their hands in the dole. Mike quotes the St. Petersburg Times article Double dipping rises despite outrage.

This year some of Florida’s public officials are giving a whole new meaning to the phrase “home for the holidays.”

It’s a new crop of double dippers, taking advantage of a loophole in state law that allows them to “retire” by taking 30 days off and return to work in their old jobs with a salary and a pension. Many also collect a lump-sum “retirement” payment that can reach hundreds of thousands of dollars.

It is sad that we live in an entitlement culture. Everyone thinks that society owes them something.

As Margaret Thatcher said of “society”,

There is no such thing! There are individual men and women and there are families and no government can do anything except through people…”

Politicians and people that demand something for nothing are holding back the more productive members of our society.